Another Major Bitcoin Crash is Coming- Bitcoin Big Picture TA.
Every once in a while the crypto market pulls a stunner, a big move downward or upward that usually brings life-changing gains to people who were waiting in anticipation and people who were just lucky to be in the right direction. For many, this move wipes away months of small profits and brings a huge amount of financial loss and emotional pain.
Since these big moves are likely going to have a huge impact on your portfolio, it makes sense to always pay attention to Bitcoin’s big picture TA even as you go about swinging or scalping the market.
In this post, I’ll share some macro TA indications that show that Bitcoin is gearing up for another crash.
1. Bear Flag on the Daily
Bitcoin has been in an upward trend channel since this year began. Some may think that this is an uptrend and indicative of further upward price action but if you zoom out a little, you’ll discover that the significant chart pattern to note, is the reverse bull flag or bear flag.
If you’re using the bear flag as the primary tool for an entry trigger (to take a short position), it’s not safe to trade inside the channel. It’s best to wait for a confirmation, which would be a breakout below the channel and a close of a candle below the channel. This has just happened.
2. 200 MA on the 3-Day chart.
The 200 MA is one significant tool that Bitcoin respects throughout its entire history. Since its invention, Bitcoin has touched the 200MA three times and every time it touched it, the MA serves as support for a while. Once this support is broken, the MA serves as resistance for a while before Bitcoin dumps hard. Will this time be different?
3. 3-Day Deathcross:
A death cross on the 3-D may happen in May and if it does, it would signal the continuation of BTC downtrend. The last 3-D death cross happened in 2018. What followed was a major crash.
There are many more signals that point to a more bearish market for this year. However, I strongly feel that this is not the best time to sell Bitcoin. I personally won't be shorting the market. I already have a larger percentage of my portfolio in USDT. I’ll be looking for buy opportunities at below $34,000 BTC. Any price below $34,000 is a giveaway price and I’ll be buying profusely. Price targets for this bear market bottom can be stipulated using the bear flag. If you measure the pole of the flag and use the same length downward, it’ll be somewhere between $20,000 and $30,000.
For Bitcoin to become bullish again and invalidate the above analysis, it needs to reclaim the $47,000 region, break that support and claim $53,000. Claiming $53,000 would be a major structural shift to the bullish side. However, it is possible for Bitcoin to re-inter the channel (in the bear flag), claim $50,000, get everyone’s hopes up and then crash down 30–50%.
I believe that after the mighty crash happens, we would be at the bear market bottom. I’d rather DCA as the price goes down and not try to predict/buy the bottom so that I don't miss the golden buying opportunity of a lifetime. People who stack Bitcoin and altcoins at below $34,000/BTC would look like gurus when the bulls come back.
